Are you a poker player looking to win big someday? If you are, then you must know the odds of poker hands. After all, poker is a game of skill, not of chance.
Being one of the most popular casino games all over the world, poker has many types. Texas hold ’em poker is one of the most preferred and well-liked poker game types. However, playing the game is not enough to win it, no matter how much you love it.
As with most games, depending on skill alone isn’t enough to succeed. You need enough knowledge on your odds to play poker well. This way, you earn the wisdom to know when you should raise, call, or fold.
Below, we’ve got a guide on the most essential poker statistics you need to know.
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1. Your Odds with Aces
Let’s start this list of poker statistics with one of the strongest cards in the game. What is the probability you’ll get dealt an ace in any hand? The answer is an average of 0.45% or 1 in every 221 hands.
How about if you’re at a full-ring table with 9 other players? What’s the possibility one of them gets dealt an ace? The odds then become once in every 154 times.
Let’s talk about your Texas hold ’em odds of facing an ace with a larger kicker. If you have an ace and a king, there’s a very low possibility of going up against a larger kicker. This is especially true when you’re up against one other player, at 0.002% possibility.
However, the more players you go up against, the bigger these odds become. Against 9 others, your A-K hand has a 0.02% possibility. It’s not too big of a deal though, considering you’ve got the two strongest cards in your hand.
What if you have an ace and a deuce? Against one player, the odds of you having a lower hand go up to 0.11%. As more players join the table, it rises until it becomes 0.65% chance that you have a lower kicker in your hand versus 9 others.
Those are your chances with aces. Below, we’ll cover more on probability with suits. Note that all of these odds also apply to online poker games.
2. Sweet Suits Stats
While aces are the strongest cards in the game, they’re more powerful with suited cards. Your odds of getting a hand of certain suited cards are once in every 331 hands. Before you get too excited when you see suited cards in your hand, keep in mind that it only improves your hand by 2.5%.
Suited connecters are easier to catch with odds of 1 in every 24.5 hands. When you do get that chance, you have 1 in 119 attempts to flop three cards of your suit. This ideal scenario is a very rare one.
Once in every 206 attempts, you will get a suited flop. If you’re the type to play suited cards, be careful. The probability of you flopping a flush is very slim, at 0.8% or 1 in 124.
Of course, your opponent’s chances are as good as yours. What are the odds of you both having suited cards and you both flopping a flush? If you must know, it’s 1 in 205 hands.
Another note on suited connecters: they look beautiful on the table. However, they’re vulnerable to over-pairs. About 80% of the time, an over-pair will beat suited connecters. So be careful playing them.
These are important statistics you should be informed of. Be like pro poker player Jonathan Little, who won $6 million playing Texas hold ’em. As you begin to master these statistics and understand what they mean, your skill will grow with you.
3. Flush and Royal Flush Figures to Remember
Let’s put some bigger numbers on the table. Flush draws are more common than you think. Your chances go up to 34.9% on making a flush after the flop.
That’s more than one-third of the time. If you’re dealt a low hand, it’s a good idea to fold. Even if they’re suited, your chances of flopping a flush are only 1 in 124.
This is the reason why 90% of players who get low numbers fold instead of continuing to play.
If you and your opponent both start with suited cards, that chance gets bigger. The odds are 1 in 205 if you both have suited cards and flop a flush. Once in 434 attempts, three players will have suited cards of identical suits and will all flop a flush. After all, in Texas hold ’em, the flush is a strong and somewhat easy hand to get.
These are essential things to know especially if you plan to join the next World Series of Poker. The 2019 Main Event featured over 8,500 players from 88 different countries.
4. Typical Texas Hold ’Em Poker Statistics
Here’s a good Texas hold ’em percentage on post-flops that you should use:
- You set a flop with your pair once every 9 times or 12% of the time
- If you and your opponent both have pocket pairs, you may both flop a set every 100 flops
- If you have a pair, you can hit a trip on the flop for 1 in 8 odds
- If you got dealt a pair and you’re flopping a set, your odds are 1 in 144
- Once in 97 times, you and your opponent have pairs and will both flop a set
Now, let’s talk about your odds of hitting quads or four of a kind. A quads is your next best hand after a royal and straight flush. The unfortunate thing is that they’re so rare that you’ll only hit a set by the river 1 in every 123 attempts.
The annual spend of a regular poker player is an estimate of 1,758 AUD. If you play smart, you can spend less and earn more. All you need to do is to know your odds and when it’s the right time to fold, raise, and call.
5. More Odds to Remember
You might have heard of the coin-flip or race. It’s a situation when a pair is playing against two overcards. Each has around 46%-57% chance of winning.
Inside straights have a very small percentage of happening on the river. Don’t go after them. You’ll have a better chance folding and saving your money for later use.
Don’t hold out for a premium or top starting hand. The chances of that happening are only 2.1%.
Don’t hold out for odds that are unlikely to happen. You’ll never get started if you do.
6. Unlucky Poker Probabilities and How to Decrease Them
You might want to know about your odds of getting unlucky in the game. How can you prepare for failure if you only acknowledge wins? After all, knowing your chances of getting a bad hand is a great way to stop yourself from risking too much.
The more hands you play, the more accurate your win rate will become. It’s not so much that your luck will get better but that your mental game will develop.
When you understand variance, it will bring you losses, wins, and a higher win rate. Check out this study on the variance of big blinds won per 100 hands. It shows a couple of examples how variance can up your poker player statistics.
The probability of hitting at least one set over 100 hands is almost 50%. On one hand, you have half a chance to hit a set. On the other, you have half a chance to miss at least one set.
However, as we discussed above, when you increase the hands you play, that probability drops. Play over 500 hands. You’ll notice the odds of not hitting a single set might drop to 3%.
Another example is the probability of not getting dealt a single pocket pair. When you play 50 hands, that unlucky statistic is around 5%. When you expand your games to 200 hands, the number drops to less than 0.0005%.
Start Playing Better Poker
That’s it for our guide on poker statistics. Remember – it’s not all about your poker face. A good player understands all the odds on the table.
Start playing more hands now. Or, take a break and check out our guide on the best lotteries to win. If you found this guide helpful, check out our other blog posts today.